How are the community win rates and tier list calculated?

Every community win rate, counter matchup, synergy pairing, and tier-list rank on counterwatch.gg is built from real matches, tracked live by Counterwatch app users while they play. The stats come from what actually happens in those matches, not from open player profiles, public leaderboards, or user-submitted results. Many stats sites read public profiles; Counterwatch measures live matches.

What the numbers reflect

• Shrunk win rate, not raw win rate. every ranking applies Bayesian shrinkage so a hero with five matches at 100% does not land S-tier. The formula blends each hero's raw win rate with a neutral 50% baseline, weighted by sample size.
• Per-rank, per-mode, per-game-type. filter the tier list to match what you actually queue for (5V5, 6V6, Stadium, Marvel Rivals Standard) and your rank division.
• Refreshed daily. the website's aggregates refresh once per early-UTC morning. The in-game overlay in the app runs live during your match.

The long-form version

For the full write-up (formula, worked examples, sample thresholds, and the historical-sparsity caveat that affects cross-season comparisons), see the methodology page.