Baptiste had the worst start to Season 5 of any support. He won 49.9% of Ranked matches in the three weeks before it and 45.4% in the three weeks from October 12, and the next-worst support, Jetpack Cat, lost 1.9 points. An r/OverwatchUniversity thread asking whether he's still viable got the explanations players give: dive, the hitscan nerf, and Sombra and Doctrine taking the role's air.
Counterwatch is my app, and these numbers come from its users' matches. I tested each of those explanations, plus Doctrine's ultimate against his lamp. Each one hits the other supports about as hard as it hits him.
He fell the furthest
- Baptiste49.9%45.4%
- Jetpack Cat51.5%49.6%
- Lifeweaver50.0%48.2%
- Mizuki51.5%50.0%
- Ana50.3%49.0%
- Wuyang52.5%51.2%
- Juno51.8%50.8%
- Illari51.6%51.3%
- Lúcio52.0%51.8%
- Brigitte52.2%52.3%
- Moira50.3%50.2%
- Mercy50.5%50.8%
- Kiriko46.6%47.2%
- Zenyatta52.4%53.8%
Show the numbers
| Support | Win rate before | Win rate after | Hero matches after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baptiste | 49.9% | 45.4% | 8,373 |
| Jetpack Cat | 51.5% | 49.6% | 11,674 |
| Lifeweaver | 50.0% | 48.2% | 23,570 |
| Mizuki | 51.5% | 50.0% | 24,423 |
| Ana | 50.3% | 49.0% | 51,900 |
| Wuyang | 52.5% | 51.2% | 13,161 |
| Juno | 51.8% | 50.8% | 34,027 |
| Illari | 51.6% | 51.3% | 5,322 |
| Lúcio | 52.0% | 51.8% | 11,503 |
| Brigitte | 52.2% | 52.3% | 9,671 |
| Moira | 50.3% | 50.2% | 67,417 |
| Mercy | 50.5% | 50.8% | 32,299 |
| Kiriko | 46.6% | 47.2% | 51,092 |
| Zenyatta | 52.4% | 53.8% | 22,252 |
Baptiste is lower at every rank from Bronze to Master, by 2.6 to 8.6 points, and his share of hero matches fell from 1.38% to 0.73%. Grandmaster has 14 matches since, so it is left out.
| Rank | Before | After | Change, points | Hero matches after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bronze | 47.0% | 44.0% | -3.0 | 295 |
| Silver | 48.3% | 45.7% | -2.6 | 1,238 |
| Gold | 49.3% | 45.7% | -3.6 | 2,047 |
| Platinum | 50.3% | 44.8% | -5.4 | 2,241 |
| Emerald | 50.2% | 46.7% | -3.5 | 1,292 |
| Diamond | 49.8% | 41.3% | -8.6 | 461 |
Facing Doctrine costs him what it costs everyone
Doctrine's teams win more than half their matches, so every hero does worse against him. To see whether he hurts Baptiste in particular, I compared each support's matches against Doctrine with their matches where he isn't on the other team. Baptiste loses 3.0 points against him, the same as Lifeweaver and less than Ana's 3.3. And in matches with no Doctrine on the other side, Baptiste is still more than three points below where he was before Season 5.
- Wuyang4.1
- Jetpack Cat3.7
- Zenyatta3.7
- Brigitte3.6
- Juno3.6
- Mizuki3.6
- Ana3.3
- Mercy3.3
- Kiriko3.1
- Moira3.1
- Baptiste3.0
- Lifeweaver3.0
- Illari2.9
- Lúcio2.9
- Sombra2.1
Show the numbers
| Support | Points lost facing him |
|---|---|
| Wuyang | 4.1 |
| Jetpack Cat | 3.7 |
| Zenyatta | 3.7 |
| Brigitte | 3.6 |
| Juno | 3.6 |
| Mizuki | 3.6 |
| Ana | 3.3 |
| Mercy | 3.3 |
| Kiriko | 3.1 |
| Moira | 3.1 |
| Baptiste | 3.0 |
| Lifeweaver | 3.0 |
| Illari | 2.9 |
| Lúcio | 2.9 |
| Sombra | 2.1 |
That also speaks to his ultimate against the lamp. Deliverance cuts an enemy's maximum health by up to 50% for 6 seconds, and Immortality Field holds allies at 25% of their maximum, so a debuffed teammate sits on a lower floor. No source says how the game combines the two, and the data can't pick out the moments they meet. If it turned fights often, it would show as a bigger cost for Baptiste than for the rest, and it doesn't.
Not dive, and not the lost damage alone
Every support did worse against dive heroes this season than against everyone else. Baptiste's extra drop against them, 1.5 points, is inside the range of the others, from 1.6 for Lúcio to a gain of 0.4 for Wuyang.
The hitscan change cost him damage. Season 5 shrank the shot size of the large hitscan weapons, his and Illari's included, from 0.07 to 0.04 meters, and both lost about the same damage per 10 minutes, 9.0% for him and 8.6% for her. So I looked at matches where each support was played start to finish, which takes swaps out of it. Illari gained 0.8 points there and Baptiste lost 4.8, the largest drop of any support. (Players who stay on a hero all match win more often than ones who swap off, so the chart's rates run high; compare each hero with itself.)
- Baptiste59.7%54.9%
- Jetpack Cat58.8%56.3%
- Lifeweaver56.3%54.7%
- Mizuki59.5%58.1%
- Wuyang59.9%58.5%
- Ana56.8%56.3%
- Juno58.3%57.8%
- Lúcio60.0%59.6%
- Brigitte63.0%62.7%
- Moira55.5%55.9%
- Mercy57.5%58.0%
- Illari60.5%61.3%
- Kiriko52.3%53.7%
- Zenyatta62.9%64.6%
Show the numbers
| Support | Whole-match win rate before | Whole-match win rate after | Whole matches after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baptiste | 59.7% | 54.9% | 4,228 |
| Jetpack Cat | 58.8% | 56.3% | 7,963 |
| Lifeweaver | 56.3% | 54.7% | 15,265 |
| Mizuki | 59.5% | 58.1% | 14,779 |
| Wuyang | 59.9% | 58.5% | 8,560 |
| Ana | 56.8% | 56.3% | 32,915 |
| Juno | 58.3% | 57.8% | 23,056 |
| Lúcio | 60.0% | 59.6% | 7,679 |
| Brigitte | 63.0% | 62.7% | 5,459 |
| Moira | 55.5% | 55.9% | 48,704 |
| Mercy | 57.5% | 58.0% | 22,284 |
| Illari | 60.5% | 61.3% | 2,565 |
| Kiriko | 52.3% | 53.7% | 33,405 |
| Zenyatta | 62.9% | 64.6% | 12,970 |
Who stopped playing him
Half as many hero matches went to Baptiste after the patch, and the players who left weren't the stronger ones on him: they had won 46.7% on him before, the players who stayed 46.6%. They moved to Doctrine, Juno and Sombra.
| Support | Share of their support matches after |
|---|---|
| Doctrine | 21.6% |
| Juno | 14.8% |
| Sombra | 11.8% |
| Moira | 9.8% |
| Ana | 9.6% |
| Kiriko | 8.4% |
More of his matches are short stints now, 46.7% under half a match against 41.1% before, the pattern of a swap that comes after a fight is already going badly. That accounts for about a quarter of his fall: with the stint lengths he had before, he'd have lost about a point less.
| Period | Under half the match, share | Whole match, share | Whole match, win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Season 5 | 41.1% | 35.2% | 59.7% |
| Oct 12 to Nov 1 | 46.7% | 30.3% | 54.9% |
What's left
So the drop is his own, across the board, and the usual explanations account for little of it. What match records can't show is what a team gets out of his kit in a fight, and that is where I'd look next.
Blizzard's November 3 patch, after these numbers end, nerfed Doctrine and Sombra and gave Baptiste only a UI change. In two weeks there will be enough matches to see whether the nerf brought Doctrine down, who counters him now, and whether Baptiste recovers with the two toned down. That gets its own article.
| Patch | Change | Before | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | Baptiste head hit volume | 15.10 | 16.00 |
| Oct 6 | Illari head hit volume | 14.90 | 18.00 |
| Oct 6 | Global large hitscan projectile size, meters | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Oct 6 | Global small hitscan projectile size, meters | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Oct 13 | Doctrine Eternal Scepter damage and healing | 60.00 | 55.00 |
| Oct 13 | Doctrine Invigorating Drones duration, seconds | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| Nov 3 | Doctrine Shrouded Momentum cooldown, seconds | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| Nov 3 | Doctrine Infuse cooldown, seconds | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| Nov 3 | Sombra Hotfix duration, seconds | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| Nov 3 | Sombra Cyberspace Weaken, % | 50.00 | 40.00 |