Phoenix moved more than any other hero the October 9 balance patch touched, rising from a 44.16% win rate to 49.48% (+5.32 points). She went from last of 28 Duelists before the patch to 15th after it.
How this is measured
These are shrunk win rates from Butcher's Blasphemy (Season 10) community data, Standard mode, all ranks and all game types, aggregated across maps. Before is the three full weeks ahead of the patch (September 14 to October 4). After is the two full weeks from October 12 to October 25, plus the first day of the current week. The week of the patch is left out of both sides because it mixes them.
The nerfs
- Devil Dinosaur, 54.68% to 53.42% (-1.26 points) over ~18,600 matches since the patch
- Gorr the God Butcher, 55.55% to 56.27% (+0.72 points) over ~9,800 matches since the patch
- Scarlet Witch, 53.57% to 51.35% (-2.22 points) over ~21,300 matches since the patch
Scarlet Witch lost the most, and she dropped from 4th to 10th among Duelists after Chthonian Burst went from 40 to 35 damage. Gorr took the largest set of cuts (Shadow Scythe, Shockwave and a shorter ultimate) and his win rate held roughly flat anyway.
The buffs
- Bruce Banner (Hulk), 52.40% to 53.35% (+0.95 points) over ~7,500 matches since the patch
- Phoenix, 44.16% to 49.48% (+5.32 points) over ~15,800 matches since the patch
- Cyclops, 45.18% to 47.39% (+2.21 points) over ~14,100 matches since the patch
- Hawkeye, 47.63% to 48.99% (+1.36 points) over ~4,600 matches since the patch
- Jubilee, 50.44% to 51.03% (+0.59 points) over ~36,400 matches since the patch
Phoenix got more Cosmic Flames damage, a bigger Spark detonation and bonus health in place of her self-heal, and she is still just under 50%. Cyclops (Optic Blast 22 to 23 damage, a cheaper ultimate) rose too but still sits 24th of 28 Duelists. Jubilee's buff came with a shorter blind, and her number barely changed.
Iron Man
Iron Man was reworked rather than buffed, with Micro-Missile Barrage now tracking enemies at lower damage per missile. He went from 51.90% to 52.07% (+0.17 points) over ~6,800 matches since the patch, so his win rate is flat across the rework.
Team-Ups
The Thing, whose only change was his Team-Up with Invisible Woman, rose from 46.55% to 48.20% (+1.65 points) over ~6,700 matches. He is still near the bottom of the Vanguard list.
The leaders
Peni Parker still leads Vanguards (58.60% to 58.46%) and Ultron still leads Strategists (57.93% to 57.81%), both flat. Storm no longer leads Duelists, slipping from 56.35% to 55.57% over only ~2,900 matches since the patch, a sample small enough that the shrink pulls her number toward 50%. The Duelist at the top now is Gorr, one of the three heroes the patch nerfed, at 56.27%.
What this cannot show
A win rate moving across a few weeks is not proof the patch moved it, because pick rates and the players on a hero change too. Any difference under 1.0 point here is roughly flat, which covers Gorr, Bruce Banner, Jubilee, Iron Man and all three leaders. Phoenix, Cyclops, Scarlet Witch and Devil Dinosaur moved in the direction their changes point, and that is as far as a little over two weeks of data can go.
Counterwatch is a one-person project. These numbers come from Counterwatch match data, and this article was generated from that analysis.